The Amending Finance Law for 2023 provides for a downward revision of the growth rate to 0.9%, compared to 1.8% estimated in this year’s Finance Law, following the deterioration of agricultural yields due to drought and climate change. In drafting the Amending Finance Bill, which will be considered by the Parliamentary Finance Committee next Wednesday, the government also estimated that the average oil price will be $83 per barrel, compared to $89 per barrel estimated in the 2023 Finance Bill. In addition to the continued rise in commodity prices (fuel and cereals), other factors were also taken into account in the Amending Finance Law, including the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, as well as the implementation of reforms. Based on this amending finance law, the state budget will increase by 1.9% to TND 71,239 million, compared to TND 69,914 million estimated in the 2023 finance law. The government forecasts a 10.8% increase in state budget expenditure in 2023, compared to 6.7% estimated in the 2023 Finance Law, due to an increase in spending on commodity subsidies (fuel and basic products) and a rise in the public debt ratio. The state’s financing needs for 2023 are expected to reach TND 25,879 million, compared with TND 23,490 million in the 2023 Finance Law, an increase of TND 2,389 million. The document also states that TND 10,711 million will be used to finance the budget deficit, while TND 14,968 million will be used to service the debt. The remaining TND 200 million will be spent on loans and advances to the treasury. The budget deficit (excluding grants and confiscations) is expected to reach 7.7% of GDP, compared to 5.2% estimated in the 2023 Finance Law. Public debt has increased from TND 114,865 million in 2022 to TND 127,164 million, or 80.2% of GDP.
Source: Agence Tunis Afrique Presse