Júlia Palik
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

Anna Marie Obermeier
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

Siri Aas Rustad
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)

1. Introduction

Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 16 calls on the world’s countries to achieve peaceful and inclusive societies and to significantly reduce all forms of violence everywhere. An important first stage in achieving this goal is to understand conflict dynamics over time and across continents as well as the types of violence various actors use. This paper is part of a series, PRIO Papers on Conflict Trends. This series comprises four papers, one on the Middle East, on Africa, one on Asia, and one that provides a global overview. This paper focuses on Africa and aims to help policymakers, decisionmakers, practitioners, and regional and country experts further understand the context in which they work.

In this paper, we provide data on, and examine conflict trends in Africa, particularly since 1989, and place them in a global context. We focus on violence in armed conflict in general but also, specifically on sexual violence in armed conflict. The paper draws on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), which comprises the best available global data about armed violence, on data from PRIO, and on the Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict (SVAC) Dataset. We examine statebased conflicts, non-state conflicts, and one-sided violence, relying on the UCDP’s conflict definition as conflicts with at least 25 battle-related deaths per year. More specific definitions will be presented in the course of the paper and in section 1.1. below. This paper need not be read from beginning to end and may be used as a reference on peace and conflict trends in the Africa.

1.1. Definitions

State-based conflict: A contested incompatibility over government and/or territory, with at least one party being a state, and involving the use of armed force that results in at least 25 battle-related deaths within a calendar year.

Non-state conflict: The use of armed force between organized groups, none of which is the government of a state, that results in at least 25 annual battle-related deaths.

One-sided violence: The use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organized group against civilians that results in at least 25 battle-related deaths. Extrajudicial killings in custody are excluded.

Battle-related deaths: Fatalities, including civilian losses, caused by warring parties and that can be directly related to combat.

1.2. Limitations

We would like to note four limitations of the PRIO Papers on Conflict Trends. First, these papers present an overview of trends in data. As such, we do not provide causal explanations for particular trends (although we highlight existing research results), and we do not expand on particular cases in depth. All papers in the series were sent out for review by country and regional experts to ensure that the quantitative evidence provided is balanced by qualitative insight. Second, we did not provide a separate regional paper on Latin America, although that region is one of the most violent in the world. Latin America experienced relatively fewer episodes of intrastate conflict than the other regions but it is plagued by social violence perpetrated by cartels and gangs. Third, some have criticized UCDP’s data on one-sided violence for inaccuracy in reported numbers for coding source bias. Many view the UCDP’s one-sided violence figures as too low (e.g., they do not account for cartel violence in Latin America). However, the UCDP is currently the only source of one-sided violence data that can be compared across time and space. For simplicity’s sake, unless otherwise noted, we use the term ‘conflict’ to refer to both conflict and war. The exception is when we examine conflict intensity; then, ‘conflict’ refers to an event with 25 to 999 battle-related deaths, whereas ‘war’ refers to an event with 1,000 or more battle-related deaths. Also, UCDP codes both conflict dyads and the regional location of the actors involved in the dyad. This sometimes results in multiple regions being coded (e.g., the Americas and Asia are coded when the US government and the government of Afghanistan are involved in a dyad). We have coded a unique variable for each conflict-dyad-year to indicate the regions in which the most battle-related deaths occurred; this variable is then used to calculate regionally disaggregated battlerelated deaths. Fourth, although the analysis in this paper explores sexual violence, we have not applied a gender lens.
We welcome comments and questions on any part of this PRIO Paper.

2. Executive Summary

The number of state-based conflicts in Africa declined slightly in 2021, but remains higher than a decade ago

In 2020, 30 state-based conflicts were recorded, compared to 27 in 2019. Fifteen conflicts were fought over territory, setting another record. Internationalized civil wars were also at an all-time high. Although the number of state-based conflicts declined slightly in 2021, to 25, the numbers were still much greater than even a decade ago. In 2021, 12 African countries—Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, DR Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, and Somalia—saw external involvement in their domestic conflicts. Multiple state-based conflicts in Africa are related to the rise and expansion of the Islamic State (IS). In 2021, nine countries in Africa—Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, DR Congo, Mali, Mozambique,
Niger, Nigeria, Somalia—experienced conflicts with IS within their territories. IS expanded into Tanzania in 2020, the first year that a state-base conflict in Tanzania appeared in the dataset. However, the conflict did not meet the 25 battle-related deaths threshold in 2021. Low-intensity conflicts resulted in more battle-related deaths in 2021 than in any other year in Africa since the beginning of the dataset in 1989.

Trends show an increase in non-state conflicts in Africa

Whereas the number of non-state conflicts fluctuates yearly in Africa, the number of non-state conflicts in the past five years exceeds that of any other five-year period. Communal conflicts, where incompatibilities are based on communal identity, remain the dominant form of non-state violence. Of the world’s regions, Africa has the highest number of non-state conflicts, but it has fewer battle-related deaths from non-state conflicts than do the Americas. State-based and nonstate conflicts often take place in the same geographical areas of Africa. In some states, such as in Nigeria and South Sudan, many regions are affected by non-state conflicts.

Governments continue to perpetrate one-sided violence in Africa

Africa is the region with the largest absolute number of fatalities from one-sided violence. This type of violence is perpetrated mainly by non-state actors, but battle-related deaths are higher in those instances when African governments perpetrate one-sided violence. In 2021, the governments of the following countries engaged in one-sided violence that resulted in at least 25-battle related deaths during the year: Burundi, Cameroon, Central African Republic, DR Congo, Eritrea, eSwatini, Ethiopia, Mali, Mozambique, South Sudan, and Sudan.

Source: Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)